By Harold Meyerson
A Harley-Davidson showroom outside Chicago
Ain’t no hiring. And ain’t likely to be any for a good long time.
The problem isn’t merely the greatest downturn since the Great Depression. It’s also that big business has found a way to make big money without restoring the jobs it cut the past two years, or increasing its investments or even its sales, at least domestically.
In the mildly halcyon days before the 2008 crash, the one economic outlier was wages. Profit, revenue and GDP all increased; only ordinary Americans’ incomes lagged behind. Today, wages are still down, employment remains low and sales revenue isn’t up much, either. But profits are the outlier. They’re positively soaring.
Among the 175 companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index that have released their second-quarter reports, the New York Times reported Sunday, revenue rose by a tidy 6.9 percent, but profits soared by a stunning 42.3 percent. Profits, that is, are increasing seven times faster than revenue. The mind, as it should, boggles.
How can America’s corporations so defy gravity? Ever adaptive, they have evolved a business model that enables them to make money even while the strapped American consumer has cut back on purchasing. For one thing, they are increasingly selling and producing overseas. General Motors is going like gangbusters in China, where it now sells more cars than it does in the United States. In China, GM employs 32,000 assembly-line workers; that’s just 20,000 fewer than the number of such workers it has in the States. And those American workers aren’t making what they used to; new hires get $14 an hour, roughly half of what veterans pull down.
The GM model typifies that of post-crash American business: massive layoffs, productivity increases, wage reductions (due in part to the weakness of unions), and reduced sales at home; increased hiring and booming sales abroad. Another part of that model is cash retention. A Federal Reserve report last month estimated that American corporations are sitting on a record $1.8 trillion in cash reserves. As a share of corporate assets, that’s the highest level since 1964.
Why invest in new plants, offices and workers, particularly here at home? Spooked by the 2008 crash, corporations want to keep more money under the mattress. More important, they’re sitting pretty as profits rise.
Is this model sustainable? It’s hard to say — a double-dip recession could plunge their profits yet again. But from the American worker’s perspective, the model, no less than a new downturn, is an unqualified disaster. It portends the kind of long-term, structural unemployment that we haven’t seen since the 1930s. It locks into place a generation of reduced incomes.
This dystopian America already stares us in the face. Fully 46 percent of the unemployed have been without work for six months or more — the highest level since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began measuring such things in 1947. Two years ago, just 18 percent of the unemployed were jobless for more than six months. America’s private-sector job machine — the marvel of the world since 1940 — has clanged to a halt, and there’s no place for it in corporations’ new business model.
The restoration of American prosperity, then, isn’t likely to be driven by our corporate sector. Across-the-board business tax cuts make no sense when business is already sitting on oceans of cash. Targeted tax cuts and credits for strategic investment and hiring within the United States, on the other hand, make excellent sense. The Obama administration has proposed expanding the tax credit for the manufacture of green technology here at home, and congressional Democrats will soon unveil legislation creating further incentives for domestic manufacturing.
Another source of jobs would be public, and public-private, investment in infrastructure. As Michael Lind and Sherle Schwenninger of the New America Foundation have argued, building a new American infrastructure of roads, rail and broadband is not only an economic necessity but also the investment with the highest multiplier effect in creating new jobs. A U.S. infrastructure investment bank, such as that proposed by Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), could leverage significant private capital to begin America’s rebuilding, though the idea has encountered rough sledding in (surprise) the Senate.
What won’t work as an economic solution — indeed, it amounts to cruel and unusual punishment — is blaming the unemployed for their failure to find jobs. There are now roughly five unemployed Americans for every open job, according to the Economic Policy Institute’s most recent calculations, and that ratio isn’t likely to decline much if we leave it to the corporate sector to resume hiring. Corporations have figured out a way to make money without resuming hiring. Their model is premised on not resuming hiring. If the public sector doesn’t fill the gap, the era of American prosperity is history.
The job machine grinds to a halt
July 29th, 2010Riders On The Storm
July 29th, 2010
When people think of New Orleans, most think of jazz, hurricane cocktails, Katrina — and now the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
But there’s another stormy concoction barreling toward the nation’s capital — in the nicest possible way. They call themselves “Women of the Storm,” and they want new money to go with old promises to restore the Gulf Coast.
Meet Anne Milling, who formed the organization with a diverse group of women after Hurricane Katrina to educate policymakers and communicate the needs of their communities. A lifelong volunteer, Milling speaks with the distinctive New Orleans accent as she describes her group and its mission. Think of them as happy warriors — nonpartisan and nonpolitical — who have learned that you can get more with honey than with vinegar.
This isn’t to say that they’re demure. After Katrina, Milling and 130 others twice hopped a chartered plane to Washington, raised blue-tarp umbrellas and visited congressional offices, urging elected representatives to visit their hurricane-ravaged region and help the coastal region recover. More than 50 senators and about 150 representatives made their way to Louisiana to see the devastation for themselves.
Milling’s group plans to stage a reenactment in September, in the wake of Katrina’s five-year anniversary (Aug. 29), this time bearing a petition with, they hope, hundreds of thousands of signatures demanding money to restore the gulf ecosystem damaged by the BP oil spill.
The petition has been posted online, along with a video of local and national celebrities calling for all Americans to “Be the One” to help save the coast. Some of the familiar faces include James Carville and Mary Matalin, musicians Dave Matthews and Lenny Kravitz, actors Sandra Bullock and John Goodman, chefs Emeril Lagasse and Leah Chase, “Mad Men” actor Bryan Batt and Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning. Each holds up an index finger, reminiscent of Iraqi voters without the purple stain, and entreats viewers to “be the one” to save the pelicans, sea turtles, seafood, coastal culture, wetlands and so on.
In a crisis-saturated world sodden with cynicism and conspiratorial ennui, these women inspire. And their petition, which has attracted more than 100,000 signatures since it was posted a week ago, offers a vehicle for channeling the frustration many Americans feel toward what sometimes seems a hopeless situation.
A signature may not seem like much, but it will help Milling & Co. make their point. Which is: The Gulf Coast crisis affects all Americans, not just coastal residents. Indeed, about 30 percent of the nation’s seafood comes from waters off Louisiana. The oil spill has resulted in an indefinite ban on fishing in 35 percent of federal waters in the gulf, while the long-term environmental effects are still being determined.
Meanwhile, the fishing communities and coastal culture unique to the area have been destroyed. As just one example, Venice, La., 50 miles from the Deepwater Horizon oil rig, is facing extinction. Tourism has taken a huge hit as beaches have closed and vacation packages have been canceled.
The port of New Orleans, one of the nation’s busiest, is expected to lose business as cleanup efforts hinder traffic flow. Finally, the region provides 30 percent of the crude oil and 13 percent of all natural gas produced in the United States. While a moratorium on drilling may be a popular notion given the circumstances, the impact from loss of jobs and revenue will be felt beyond Louisiana.
Milling hopes to recruit women from other coastal states to join her in pressuring Washington to act. She notes, always graciously, that Washington is good about creating programs but not so good at following through with funding.
Congress passed the Water Resources Development Act of 2007, specifically authorizing projects that would do much to restore the gulf wetlands. But so far, no money. Environmental groups with which Milling’s group have been working published an open letter Tuesday to Navy Secretary Ray Mabus urging him to call for immediate funding of the act.
Among the priorities is reconnecting the Mississippi River with its delta wetlands and restoring barrier islands.
For an administration that favors shovel-ready jobs and has stimulus funds idling, not to mention about $32 billion in BP monies, the gulf restoration project would seem a worthy and urgent target. A perfect storm for a region that has seen too many.
The Women of the Storm Stir Up a Tempest
Heroes Appear
Though the Women of the Storm have become a sensation in New Orleans, on Capitol Hill and across the nation, they humbly view themselves as doing necessary work in the tragic wakes of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. “We are all here working for the betterment of our community; everyone who is pitching in is a hero,” says Anne Milling, the founder of this passionate, committed, nonpartisan, multicultural organization of women from diverse socioeconomic backgrounds who hail from the New Orleans metropolitan area, Lake Charles, Lafayette, Thibodaux and Houma. “I asked a small group over to my house on January 10th to bounce my idea off of them,” Milling smiles. And the idea took. These ladies, Peggy L. Laborde, Beverly Church, Pam Bryan, Nancy Marsiglia and Liz Sloss, “are all knowledgeable volunteers who work throughout the community and had a wonderful perspective on what was doable. And they said ‘Let’s go;’ 20 days later, we were on a plane to Washington D.C. with 130 Women of the Storm.”The Message is Clear
It all began as an idea: Milling saw the devastation around her and decided that it was important for Congress to see New Orleans, tour its devastation and understand its needs, and to hopefully incite them to become more involved in the city’s resurrection. The women’s mission is to inspire each member of Congress to visit and view the desolation in New Orleans and South Louisiana caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Only by absorbing it block-by-block and mile-by-mile, they believe, will the members who vote for federal help truly understand. Since their trip to D.C., their mission has not changed one iota. “The ladies and I feel that once they have been here, then we can advocate for oil and gas revenues and for increased funding for houses. We can do all of those things, but the mission of the Women of the Storm is to get Congress here,” Milling reiterates.Achievements Made
The Women of the Storm successfully stirred things up in D.C. “The media was overwhelmed by the ladies with their blue tarp umbrellas,” Milling smiles. “We swarmed Capitol Hill like little bees in pairs and knocked on doors where we had appointments. It went so smoothly. I think the ladies made an impression on everyone.” Each pair of women extended a personal invitation to four Congressmen. This included an all-expenses paid, 36-hour trip to New Orleans and a copy of the book America’s Wetland: Louisiana’s Vanishing Coast by Mike Dunne and Bevil Knapp. Beyond achieving their goal of inviting each member of Congress, this became a bonding experience among women, many of whom had never met each other before their triumphant trip.The Feature
Now the hard part begins. “It’s one thing to extend the invitation. It’s another, and a more difficult one, to get them to accept the invitation,” Milling reminds us. The first Congressman will have visited by the end of the first week of March, and they hope that many more will follow suit.
The Women of the Storm are growing in numbers as well. Anyone who is passionate about New Orleans and wants to help them find ways to entice others on Capitol Hill to come and visit are encouraged to join the group. “We would welcome anyone who would like to be a part of the Women of the Storm,” Milling smiles.
If you would like to become a Woman of the Storm, email Anne Milling at: amilling@bellsouth.net.
Christopher Hitchens: Some Confessions and Contradictions
July 29th, 2010Enough right-wing propaganda
July 29th, 2010The smearing of Shirley Sherrod ought to be a turning point in American politics. This is not, as the now-trivialized phrase has it, a “teachable moment.” It is a time for action.
The mainstream media and the Obama administration must stop cowering before a right wing that has persistently forced its propaganda to be accepted as news by convincing traditional journalists that “fairness” requires treating extremist rants as “one side of the story.” And there can be no more shilly-shallying about the fact that racial backlash politics is becoming an important component of the campaign against President Obama and against progressives in this year’s election.
The administration’s response to the doctored video pushed by right-wing hit man Andrew Breitbart was shameful. The obsession with “protecting” the president turned out to be the least protective approach of all.
The Obama team did not question, let alone challenge, the video. Instead, it assumed that whatever narrative Fox News might create mattered more than anything else, including the possible innocence of a human being outside the president’s inner circle.
Obama complained on ABC’s “Good Morning America” that Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack “jumped the gun, partly because we now live in this media culture where something goes up on YouTube or a blog and everybody scrambles.” But it’s his own apparatus that turned “this media culture” into a false god.
Yet the Obama team was reacting to a reality: the bludgeoning of mainstream journalism into looking timorously over its right shoulder and believing that “balance” demands taking seriously whatever sludge the far right is pumping into the political waters.
This goes way back. Al Gore never actually said he “invented the Internet,” but you could be forgiven for not knowing this because the mainstream media kept reporting he had.
There were no “death panels” in the Democratic health-care bills. But this false charge got so much coverage that an NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll last August found that 45 percent of Americans thought the reform proposals would likely allow “the government to make decisions about when to stop providing medical care to the elderly.” That was the summer when support for reform was dropping precipitously. A straight-out lie influenced the course of one of our most important debates.
The traditional media are so petrified of being called “liberal” that they are prepared to allow the Breitbarts of the world to become their assignment editors. Mainstream journalists regularly criticize themselves for not jumping fast enough or high enough when the Fox crowd demands coverage of one of their attack lines.
Thus did Post ombudsman Andrew Alexander ask this month why the paper had been slow to report on “the Justice Department’s decision to scale down a voter-intimidation case against members of the New Black Panther Party.” Never mind that this is a story about a tiny group of crackpots who stopped no one from voting. It was aimed at doing what the doctored video Breitbart posted set out to do: convince Americans that the Obama administration favors blacks over whites.
And never mind that, to her great credit, Abigail Thernstrom, a conservative George W. Bush appointee to the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights, dismissed the case and those pushing it. “This doesn’t have to do with the Black Panthers,” she told Politico’s Ben Smith. “This has to do with their fantasies about how they could use this issue to topple the [Obama] administration.” Instead, the media are supposed to take seriously the charges of J. Christian Adams, who served in the Bush Justice Department. He’s a Republican activist going back to the Bill Clinton era. His party services included time as a Bush poll watcher in Florida in 2004, when on one occasion he was involved in a controversy over whether a black couple could cast a regular ballot.
Now, Adams is accusing the Obama Justice Department of being “motivated by a lawless hostility toward equal enforcement of the law.” This is racially inflammatory, politically motivated nonsense — and it’s nonsense even if Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh talk about it a thousand times a day. When an outlandish charge for which there is no evidence is treated as an on-the-one-hand-and-on-the-other-hand issue, the liars win.
The Sherrod case should be the end of the line. If Obama hates the current media climate, he should stop overreacting to it. And the mainstream media should stop being afraid of insisting on the difference between news and propaganda.
Best Leak Ever
July 29th, 2010“BP squad” assembling to conduct a wide-ranging criminal probe
July 29th, 2010
Blamed by many for the catastrophic Deepwater Horizon oil spill, it is believed that BP chief executive Tony Hayward will resign his post in October and take a job with the company’s joint venture in Russia, TNK-BP.
A team of federal investigators known as the “BP squad” is assembling in New Orleans to conduct a wide-ranging criminal probe that will focus on at least three companies and examine whether their cozy relations with federal regulators contributed to the oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, according to law enforcement and other sources.
The squad at the FBI offices includes investigators from the Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Coast Guard and other federal agencies, the sources said. In addition to BP, the firms at the center of the inquiry are Transocean, which leased the Deepwater Horizon rig to BP, and engineering giant Halliburton, which had finished cementing the well only 20 hours before the rig exploded April 20, sources said.
While it was known that investigators are examining potential violations of environmental laws, it is now clear that they are also looking into whether company officials made false statements to regulators, obstructed justice or falsified test results for devices such as the rig’s failed blowout preventer. It is unclear whether any such evidence has surfaced.
One emerging line of inquiry, sources said, is whether inspectors for the Minerals Management Service, the federal agency charged with regulating the oil industry — which is itself investigating the disaster — went easy on the companies in exchange for money or other inducements. A series of federal audits has documented the MMS’s close relationship with the industry.
“The net is wide,” said one federal official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.
The Justice Department investigation — announced in June by Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. and accompanied by parallel state criminal probes in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama — is one of at least nine investigations into the worst oil spill in U.S. history.
Unlike the public hearings held last week in Kenner, La., by a federal investigatory panel, the criminal probe has operated in the shadows. But it could lead to large fines for the companies and jail time for executives if the government files charges and proves its case.
Justice Department officials declined to comment Tuesday. Holder, in an interview with CBS News this month, confirmed that investigators are conducting a broad probe. “There are a variety of entities and a variety of people who are the subjects of that investigation,” Holder said.
In an additional avenue of inquiry, BP disclosed in a regulatory filing Tuesday that the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission are looking into “securities matters” relating to the spill, although no more details were included.
Scott Dean, a spokesman for London-based BP, said the company “will cooperate with any inquiry the Justice Department undertakes, just as we are doing in response to other inquiries that are ongoing.”
Brian Kennedy, a spokesman for Transocean, a former U.S. firm now based in Switzerland, declined to comment, as did Teresa Wong, a spokeswoman for Houston-based Halliburton.
Halliburton informed its shareholders about the Justice Department probe in its July 23 quarterly report to securities regulators. It also noted that the department warned the company not to make “substantial” transfers of assets while the matter is under scrutiny.
The probe is in its early stages, with investigators digging through tens of thousands of documents turned over by the companies, beginning to interview company officials and trying to determine the basics of who was responsible for various operations on the rig.
Although lawyers familiar with the case expect that environmental-related charges — which have a low burden of proof — will be filed, some doubted that investigators can prove more serious violations such as lying or falsifying test results.
“That’s hard to prove,” said one lawyer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because details of the investigation are not public. “It’s hard to show that somebody who could have died on the rig was malicious and reckless and intentionally did something that jeopardized their own life.”
The emerging focus creates potentially awkward interactions on several levels. Investigators are probing companies, especially BP, which the government has been forced to work with in cleaning up the oil that cascaded into the gulf. And the former Minerals Management Service, which sources said has attracted the attention of criminal investigators, is helping to lead the federal panel that conducted last week’s hearings in Louisiana.
Federal auditors have in recent years documented a culture at the MMS in which inspectors improperly accepted gifts from oil and gas companies, moved freely between industry and government and, in one instance, negotiated for a job with a company under inspection.
After the most recent investigation was released in May, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said he had asked his department’s acting inspector general, Mary Kendall, to expand her inquiry to include whether MMS failed to adequately inspect the Deepwater Horizon rig or enforce federal standards.
One law enforcement official said criminal investigators will look for evidence that MMS inspectors were bribed or promised industry jobs in exchange for lenient treatment. “Every instinct I have tells me there ought to be numerous indictable cases in that connection between MMS and the industry,” said this official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the investigation is unfolding.
Melissa Schwartz, a spokeswoman for the former MMS (now called the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement), declined to comment.
FBI agents and other investigators are working with prosecutors from the environmental crimes section of the Justice Department, along with local U.S. attorney’s offices. Officials would not provide details about the new squad starting in the FBI’s New Orleans office. Sources said it is known internally as “the BP squad,” though it will examine all companies involved with the Deepwater rig.
After learning what is in the thousands of documents, investigators plan to “start trying to turn one witness against the other, get insider information,” said the law enforcement official.
The official said that no decisions on criminal charges are imminent and that “you can bet on it being more than a year before any kind of indictment comes down.”
Logs Suggest Pakistani Intelligence Controls Course of War
July 29th, 2010
Former Pakistani intelligence chief Hamid Gul: a Taliban ally?
Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the ISI, appears frequently in the war logs obtained by WikiLeaks. They suggest that even as Pakistan served as an ally to the United States, it was still secretly helping the Taliban in its insurgency in Afghanistan. The documents also suggest a major role is played by former ISI chief Hamid Gul.
Editor’s note: The following article is an excerpt from this week’s SPIEGEL cover story. The facts in the story come from a database of almost 92,000 American military reports on the state of the war in Afghanistan that were obtained by the WikiLeaks website. Britain’s Guardian newspaper, the New York Times and SPIEGEL have all vetted the material and reported on the contents in articles that have been researched independently of each other. All three media sources have concluded that the documents are authentic and provide an unvarnished image of the war in Afghanstan — from the perspective of the soldiers on the ground.
Afghanistan’s neighbor, Pakistan, has been in a tight spot since the al-Qaida attacks on New York and Washington. Officially, the country is part of the worldwide anti-terrorism coalition forged by former United States President George W. Bush. Unofficially, however, the Pakistani security forces are the patrons of the Taliban forces that gave refuge to Osama bin Laden and his terrorists. It is clear that the Taliban would not exist without help from abroad. The Pakistani intelligence service, the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), helped build up and install the Taliban after the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan and the country descended into a fratricidal war among the victorious mujahedeen, creating the threat of a power vacuum.
Despite all assurances by Pakistani politicians that these old connections were severed long ago, the country still pursues an ambiguous policy, in which Pakistan is both an ally of the United States and a helper of its enemies.
Now there is new evidence to support this. The war logs make it clear that the Pakistani intelligence service is still presumably the Taliban’s most important supporter outside Afghanistan. The fact is that the war against the Afghan security forces, the Americans and their allies within the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) is still being conducted from Pakistani soil, with the country serving as a safe haven for all hostile forces.
It also serves as a staging ground from which they can deploy. The Taliban’s new recruits, including feared foreign fighters, are streaming across the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. The three main enemies of the Western coalition forces, the Taliban under Mullah Omar, the fighters led by former mujahedeen leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and the militias of the Haqqani clan of warlords all have important quarters and operations centers in Pakistan.
Osama bin Laden, the original justification for this war, is also believed to have found safe haven in Pakistan, where he is still involved in the day-to-day operations of jihad against the infidels. On one occasion, according to the documents, bin Laden planned to attack his enemies with a poison called, in his honor, “Osama Kapa,” and on another he reportedly gave the gift of a wife to a particularly zealous Taliban fighter who had designed effective remotely triggered explosive booby traps.
Pakistan’s Assurance of Future Influence
The Pakistani intelligence service has excellent relations with all groups. In the constant fear that Pakistan’s archrival India could gain a foothold in Afghanistan and thus have Pakistan in its pincers, so to speak, the ISI supports everything that could preserve and strengthen its own influence in Kabul. And because many ISI strategists cannot believe that the Americans will remain in Afghanistan for long (after all, Washington has already announced the beginning of its withdrawal), the Taliban remains Pakistan’s assurance of future influence in Kabul. This reasoning is particularly clear in the Afghanistan war logs.
According to the warnings of new attacks and suicide bombings by the enemy, ISI envoys were present when Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s commanders met for a war council in northern Waziristan.
A document dated Sept. 1, 2007 reports on an imminent attack by a group of Hekmatyar’s fighters on one of the Allies’ forward operating bases in Kunar, the Afghan province bordering Peshawar in Pakistan. The elaborate and carefully planned attack was to involve four suicide bombers, and the Americans’ source even knew where they were from: one Pakistani, one Arab and two Afghans. The plans also included a rocket attack and artillery fire. Finally, foot soldiers were to storm the outpost and take enemy soldiers prisoner, if possible.
The Pakistani intelligence service supplied Chinese ammunition to the insurgents. The ISI, as partial financier of the operation, wanted to retain control and thus intended to send an officer to observe the attack and advise the fighters.
Nothing Works without the ISI
Pakistan’s western Balochistan Province is believed to be the area where Taliban leader Mullah Omar spends most of his time. The Shura, the Taliban’s decision-making body, meets once a month in the city of Quetta, or at least it did in the first few years after the Taliban fled Afghanistan. Some of the documents, such as the Aug. 16, 2006 warning of an impending attack, even claim that bin Laden himself has attended this meeting. The American intelligence gatherers, skeptical about this claim, classified the document as 3F, which means that it does not require verification.
A man who undoubtedly attended the Shura was Mullah Baradar, a brother-in-law of Mullah Omar and the former Taliban military chief. The documents describe Baradar as the chairman of the Shura, and state that he monitors the financing, procurement and distribution of weapons, ammunition and other materials. As it happens, Baradar is also a confidant of the ISI. He designed the Taliban’s strategy and, according to the war logs, is also responsible for the use of suicide bombings. Why, then, would Pakistani security forces have arrested Baradar on Feb. 8, 2010?
Many observers believe that the Pakistani security forces struck after the mullah had begun communicating with Afghan President Hamid Karzai. If this interpretation is correct, then the arrest of Baradar constituted a clear signal to the Taliban and their allies that nothing works without the ISI.
Anyone reading through the material already comes away with this impression. In document after document, it is the ISI that controls the course of the war, and suicide bombers are apparently one of its preferred weapons. In fact, it is the ISI itself that often deploys them, as a threat warning note dated Oct. 30, 2008 indicates. The note reads: “According to a source (C6) AQ (al-Qaida) and ISI formed an attack group that was called ‘General.’ There are six suicide bombers in the group, two of them are Chinese, two of them are Uzbek and the others are Arab. The suicide bombers intruded into Khost (province) … .”
The ISI also issues precise orders to murder certain individuals. According to the documents, Afghan President Hamid Karzai is at the top of its hit list. Some of the documents are shockingly succinct and to the point. According to a warning dated August 21, 2008, for example, an ISI colonel “had directed Talib Maulawi Izzatullah to see that Karzai was assassinated. Izzatullah assigned Abdulbari from Sarobi District to assassinate Karzai in a suicide mission at the Presidential Palace.”
Archenemy India a Frequent Target
Pakistan’s archenemy India is mentioned again and again. According to the documents, the intelligence service instructed its Afghan allies to kill Indians who worked in Afghanistan. Their efforts apparently did not go unrewarded, with the ISI promising fighters in the Haqqani network large sums of money for killing Indians. The ISI’s other preferred targets included all Indian consulates in Afghanistan, roads built by Indian workers and a telephone network installed by Indians. There is only one warning about a planned attack that does not include any indication of the ISI’s involvement, this time on the Indian embassy in Kabul — which did in fact happen, on July 7, 2008, claiming 58 lives. That warning came from intelligence agents within the Polish ISAF contingent.
The documents also contain information about attacks ordered on strategic targets, like dams, key roads and the Kabul power supply. Some of the plans the intelligence service apparently had developed were relatively extreme. One report, for example, states that the ISI planned to have its agents poison drinking water and alcoholic beverages sold on the black market. All attacks, including the suicide bombings on foreign troops, came with financial incentives, although the reports vary widely on the level of compensation. For example, the ISI was allegedly willing to pay between $15,000 and $30,000 to fighters in the Haqqani network for each attack on Indians.
Former ISI Chief Plays Key Role in Logs
Pakistan’s former intelligence chief Hamid Gul plays a special role in the documents. Gul, a former army general who headed the ISI from 1987 to 1989, was one of the key supporters of the mujahedeen when they were fighting the Soviet occupation force in Afghanistan. When speaking with the Western media, Gul later proved to be a propagandist of sorts for the Taliban and someone who could easily see himself sympathizing with their struggle against the Americans. The United States accuses him of maintaining ties to al-Qaida.
In the newly leaked documents, Gul is also portrayed as an ally and, in one case, even as “a leader” of the Taliban. According to a threat assessment dated Jan. 14, 2008, he coordinated plans to kidnap United Nations employees on Afghanistan’s Highway No. 1 between Kabul and Jalalabad. Some 15 to 20 Taliban fighters were to stop the UN vehicle and threaten the passengers with their weapons. There was to be no mercy. As the report reads, if the Taliban encountered resistance during the kidnapping, the hostage-takers “will use the AK47 guns to fight the resistance or kill the hostages.”
According to the reports, the retired general continued to supply his protégés with weapons. One source mentions that Gul had organized a convoy of 65 trucks filled with ammunition for the Taliban, although the authors of the report do not completely trust the source. Another report mentions that the ISI sent 1,000 motorcycles to the Haqqanis and delivered 7,000 weapons to Kunar Province, including Kalashnikovs, mortars and Strella missiles.
Skepticism over Veracity of Some Documents
But it is precisely the especially transparent attempts to portray the Taliban’s supporters at the ISI as the most sinister of monsters that give rise to skepticism about the documents.
On May 29, 2006, for example, the Afghan intelligence service reported on an ISI campaign to burn down Afghan schools. Was this truly the work of a generally secular military, or was the campaign in fact the brainchild of Taliban religious fanatics?
And the claims about the ISI’s alleged recruitment of children as suicide bombers? According to the documents, the child bombers were sent out with explosive vests attached to their bodies, and the explosives were then detonated remotely. Was this also the work of the Pakistani intelligence service, which was supposedly being overrun by domestic and foreign candidates for martyrdom?
Did the ISI truly ask women to hide explosive vests under their burqas, and is it true that ISI agents tenderly concealed an explosive device inside a gold-colored, fake Koran? These and other claims appear in this collection of reports assembled by the Americans. But are they true? The truth is that not all documents from this treasure trove are beyond any doubt.
War Logs Spark German Debate on Afghanistan Conflict
July 29th, 2010The publication of the Afghanistan war logs by WikiLeaks has sparked a new debate about Germany’s involvement in the conflict. The Social Democrats are threatening to withhold support for an extension of the German mission’s mandate if the government does not provide answers about alleged wrongdoings revealed in the secret reports.
Speaking to SPIEGEL about the publication of the Afghanistan war logs, WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange said the material “will change the opinion of people in positions of political and diplomatic influence.” In Germany, at least, his prediction appears to be coming true.
Rolf Mützenich, the foreign policy spokesman for the parliamentary group of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), told the Wednesday edition of the Berliner Zeitung newspaper that the SPD would make their support for the extension of the Bundeswehr’s mandate, which comes up for renewal in March 2011, dependent on how the government explains the details revealed by the war logs.
The SPD would “confront” the government with the new information, which has been obtained from over 90,000 documents uncovered by the whistleblowing organization WikiLeaks, and “question them intensively” about it, Mützenich said. The details about the security situation in Kunduz, where German forces are stationed, and the activities of the US special forces unit Task Force 373 make the government’s recent statements about the conflict “look dubious,” he said. Mützenich called on the German government to check with its allies whether “all the US Army’s activities are covered by the ISAF mandate from the point of view of international law,” referring to the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force.
Although Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition government has enough votes in parliament to pass an extension of the mandate without SPD support, Merkel has in the past tried to win opposition votes to show that the mission is based on a broad social consensus.
The Green Party’s defense expert Omid Nouripour told the Saarbrücker Zeitung that the government had withheld important information from members of the German parliament, the Bundestag. “Week after week, we receive information about the security situation in Kunduz from the government,” he said. “Nevertheless, I have found plenty of incidents in the documents that I had never heard about before.”
‘Not Entirely Surprising’
The German government sought to play down the significance of the WikiLeaks archive. The contents of the published documents are “not entirely surprising,” said German Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg on Tuesday. Guttenberg said that every person who was being briefed on the conflict knew about the existence of Task Force 373, as did many journalists.
It was a similar line to that taken by US President Barack Obama. “The fact is these documents don’t reveal any issues that haven’t already informed our public debate on Afghanistan,” Obama told reporters Tuesday.
Ruprecht Polenz, a foreign policy expert in Angela Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union, called the WikiLeaks publication “problematic” and a “scandal” with possibly far-reaching consequences. In remarks to Berlin’s Tagesspiegel newspaper, he warned that the Taliban could derive conclusions about future allied operations from the newly published information about past actions.
Betrayal or Expression of Democracy?
Within the military, too, the war logs appear to be controversial. High-ranking former Bundeswehr officers approached by SPIEGEL ONLINE were divided over the wisdom of publishing the documents, with some praising the act and others warning of the threat to the current mission.
“This is the highest expression of our democracy,” former air force General Manfred Opel, who is also a former SPD member of parliament, told SPIEGEL ONLINE. Ordinary people need to be able to form an impression of the kind of war that is being fought in Afghanistan, he said.
Opel said that publishing the documents did not pose a danger to soldiers in the field. “It would only be a betrayal of state secrets if I were to give my opponent information about my short-term strategic and tactical plans,” he said.
Former Brigadier General Klaus Reinhardt did not see the documents as endangering troops, as the reports only go up until 2009. “In my opinion, the Taliban will not be able to draw any conclusions about the current situation.” Nevertheless he called the publication of the reports “irresponsible.” The individuals who placed the documents on the Internet “want to influence the opinion of the general public,” he said. It is unclear that there is a need for such an effort in Germany: Surveys show that a majority of Germans oppose the mission in Afghanistan.
Former Bundeswehr Inspector-General Klaus Naumann did not want to comment specifically on the WikiLeaks documents but said he opposed the publication of secret documents in general. “It seems certain to me that the Taliban is the beneficiary when these things are published,” he said.
The almost 92,000 American military logs from the field in Afghanistan were obtained by the WikiLeaks website and made available to Britain’s Guardian newspaper, the New York Times and SPIEGEL, who all vetted the material and reported on the contents in articles that were researched independently of each other.
Susan Shaw: The oil spill’s toxic trade-off
July 29th, 2010
Break down the oil slick, keep it off the shores: that’s grounds for pumping toxic dispersant into the Gulf, say clean-up overseers. Susan Shaw shows evidence it’s sparing some beaches only at devastating cost to the health of the deep sea.
For two decades, Susan Shaw has investigated the effects of environmental chemicals in marine animals. She is credited as the first scientist to show that flame-retardant chemicals in consumer products have contaminated marine mammals and commercially important fish stocks in the northwest Atlantic Ocean.
An outspoken and influential voice on ocean pollution, Shaw dove in the Gulf oil slick in May and observed first-hand how oil and dispersants are impacting life in the water column. The experience prompted her to call for a collaborative, Gulf-wide effort to track effects as the toxins ripple through the food web. She was instrumental in creating the Consensus Statement opposing further use of dispersants in the Gulf.
Shaw serves on the International Panel on Chemical Pollution, a select group of scientists urging policymakers to improve management of toxic chemicals. She travels throughout the US, Europe and Asia as a speaker on the ocean crisis and chemical pollution.
“Both types of Corexit dispersants used in the Gulf contain solvents – petroleum distillates that are animal carcinogens – capable of killing or depressing the growth of a wide range of aquatic species. For vulnerable species such as phytoplankton, corals and small fish, the combined effects of Corexit and dispersed oil can be greater and last longer than the effects of oil alone.”
Susan Shaw
Nuclear Energy Loses Cost Advantage
July 27th, 2010By DIANA S. POWERS

Solar photovoltaic systems have long been painted as a clean way to generate electricity, but expensive compared with other alternatives to oil, like nuclear power. No longer. In a “historic crossover,” the costs of solar photovoltaic systems have declined to the point where they are lower than the rising projected costs of new nuclear plants, according to a paper published this month.
“Solar photovoltaics have joined the ranks of lower-cost alternatives to new nuclear plants,” John O. Blackburn, a professor of economics at Duke University, in North Carolina, and Sam Cunningham, a graduate student, wrote in the paper, “Solar and Nuclear Costs — The Historic Crossover.”
This crossover occurred at 16 cents per kilowatt hour, they said.
While solar power costs have been declining, the costs of nuclear power have been rising inexorably over the past eight years, said Mark Cooper, senior fellow for economic analysis at the University of Vermont Law School’s Institute for Energy and Environment.
Estimates of construction costs — about $3 billion per reactor in 2002 — have been regularly revised upward to an average of about $10 billion per reactor, and the estimates are likely to keep rising, said Mr. Cooper, an analyst specializing in tracking nuclear power costs.
Identifying the real costs of competing energy technologies is complicated by the wide range of subsidies and tax breaks involved. As a result, U.S. taxpayers and utility users could end up spending hundreds of billions, even trillions of dollars more than necessary to achieve an ample low-carbon energy supply, if legislative proposals before the U.S. Congress lead to adoption of an ambitious nuclear development program, Mr. Cooper said in a report last November.
The report, “All Risk, No Reward for Taxpayers and Ratepayers,” was a response to a legislative wish list developed by the Nuclear Energy Institute, an industry group. The institute has called for a mix of U.S. subsidies, tax credits, loan guarantees, procedural simplifications and institutional support on a large scale.
At the state level, the industry has also pressed the case for “construction work in progress,” a financing system that requires electricity users to pay for the cost of new reactors during their construction and sometimes before construction starts. With long construction periods and frequent delays, this can mean that electricity users start to pay higher prices as much as 12 years before the plants produce electricity.
The institute’s Web site says the financing system “reduces the cost ratepayers will pay for power from the plant when it goes into commercial operation,” by lowering interest payments on capital costs and spreading the costs over time.
“The utilities insist that the construction work in progress charged to ratepayers also include the return on equity that the utilities normally earn by taking the risk of building the plant — even though they have shifted the risk to the ratepayers,” Mr. Cooper said. “If the plant is not built or suffers cost overruns, the ratepayers will bear the burden.”
History suggests that the risk of this is not negligible. In 1985, Forbes magazine dubbed the construction of the first generation of U.S. nuclear plants “the largest managerial disaster in business history.”
The first round of plants resulted in write-offs through bankruptcies and “stranded costs” — investments in existing power plants made uncompetitive by deregulation — which essentially transferred nearly $100 billion in liabilities to electricity users, said Doug Koplow, an economist and founder of Earth Track, based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, which campaigns against subsidies it considers environmentally harmful. “Although the industry frequently points to its low operating costs as evidence of its market competitiveness, this economic structure is an artifact of large subsidies to capital, historical write-offs of capital, and ongoing subsidies to operating costs,” Mr. Koplow said.
From 1943 to 1999 the U.S. government paid nearly $151 billion, in 1999 dollars, in subsidies for wind, solar and nuclear power, Marshall Goldberg of the Renewable Energy Policy Project, a research organization in Washington, wrote in a July 2000 report. Of this total, 96.3 percent went to nuclear power, the report said.
Still, these costs pale in comparison with the financial risks and subsidies that are likely to accompany the next wave of nuclear plant construction, Mr. Cooper said.
A November 2009 research report by Citigroup Global Markets termed the construction risks, power price risks, and operational risks “so large and variable that individually they could each bring even the largest utility to its knees.”
Those risks were mentioned in a 2009 report by the credit rating agency Moody’s. “Moody’s is considering taking a more negative view for those issuers seeking to build new nuclear power plants,” the report said. “Historically, most nuclear-building utilities suffered ratings downgrades — and sometimes several — while building these facilities. Political and policy conditions are spurring applications for new nuclear power generation for the first time in years. Nevertheless, most utilities now seeking to build nuclear generation do not appear to be adjusting their financial policies, a credit negative.”
Adding to the risks facing any reactor construction program, only one of five proposed designs under consideration by U.S. utilities has ever been built, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission said.
“No one has ever built a contemporary reactor to contemporary standards, so no one has the experience to state with confidence what it will cost,” said Stephen Maloney, a utilities management consultant. “We see cost escalations as companies come up the learning curve.”
Market risk has been heightened by the recent recession. “The current crisis has decreased energy demand even more than the 1970s oil price shocks,” Mr. Cooper said. The recession “appears to have caused a fundamental shift in consumption patterns that will lower the long-term growth rate of electricity demand.”
Meanwhile, most of the projects that have created the increase of license applications to the regulatory commission have already experienced difficulties. “About half of the projects that have been put forward at the start of the next generation of reactors have been delayed or canceled,” Mr. Cooper said. “Those that have moved forward have suffered substantial cost escalation and several have received negative financial reviews.
“Of the 19 applications at the N.R.C., 90 percent have had some type of delay or cancellation, run into a design problem, suffered cost increases and/or had the utility bond rating downgraded by Wall Street.”
Despite the economic challenges, the nuclear power industry remains unfazed.
“This is not a hospitable environment in which to commission any large base-load power plant,” said Marvin Fertel, president and chief executive of the Nuclear Energy Institute, in a briefing to the financial community. Still, he said: “Fortunately new nuclear plants won’t be in service until 2016 or later, so today’s market conditions are not entirely relevant.”
Mr. Cooper said the industry’s equanimity was based, at least partially, on the supportive cushion provided by loan guarantees and work-in-progress financing. “With such financing the utility is making a one-way bet, allowing it to make a profit even when the project fails,” he said. “The people bear the risks and costs; the nuclear utilities take the profits. Without loan guarantees and guaranteed construction work in progress, these reactors will simply not be built, because the capital markets will not finance them.”
Without public guarantees, nuclear projects often cannot get financing. AmerenUE, the Missouri utility, suspended in April 2009 plans to build a $6 billion, 1,600-megawatt reactor at its Callaway County nuclear site, after trying unsuccessfully to get the State Legislature to repeal a longstanding ban on work-in-progress financing. The continued existence of the ban “makes financing a new plant in the current economic environment impossible,” the utility said.
Similarly, Florida Power and Light said in January that it would not proceed beyond licensing with plans to build two new reactors at its Turkey Point site, after the Florida Public Service Commission rejected its request to pass on a $1.27 billion cost increase to its users.
Yet, despite episodic resistance at the local level, financial support for the industry at the U.S. government level has been increasingly evident in successive versions of climate and energy bills before the U.S. Congress, including the most recent, the American Power Act, which is delayed in the Senate until after the summer recess.
Nuclear subsidies in the Senate proposal include five-year accelerated depreciation; tax credits for investments and production and eligibility for the advanced energy tax credit; an increase in government insurance against regulatory delays; access to private activity bonds; and a $36 billion increase in loan guarantees, bringing the total to $56 billion.
That remains less than the Nuclear Energy Institute’s goal of $100 billion, an amount it describes as “a minimal acceptable loan volume.” Still, Mr. Fertel said in his financial briefing that “‘strong political support’ understates our position.”
Federal loan guarantees cut nuclear construction financing costs by allowing the utilities to sell bonds at a lower interest rate. But at the same time the guarantee means that “the U.S. Treasury, and therefore the taxpayers, are on the hook for the value of the loans should they go bad,” Mr. Cooper said.
According to the U.S. Government Accountability Office, the average risk of default for such Department of Energy loan guarantees is about 50 percent, which is the historic rate for the nuclear industry.
Mr. Koplow of Earth Track said two of the other subsidies in the Senate bill, the investment tax credit and five-year accelerated depreciation, would together “be worth between $1.3 billion and nearly $3 billion on a net present value basis per new reactor.
“This is equivalent to between 15 and 20 percent of the total all-in cost of the reactors, as projected by industry.”
Over all, Mr. Koplow said, the proposed subsidy package would undermine the equity requirements of the nuclear loan guarantee program, designed to ensure that investors have a strong interest in the long-term success of the venture. “Although investors will get all the profit if the reactor project is successful, they will bear virtually none of the financial risk if the project fails,” he said. “This is a disastrous incentive structure.”
By distorting energy markets, these subsidies would “effectively make the government the chooser of which energy technologies will be winners and which will lose,” he said. The American Power Act “does not build a neutral policy platform on which all energy technologies must compete.”
The tax breaks for nuclear would “greatly impede market access for competing energy sources,” Mr. Koplow said.
He said handing out huge subsidies would also cloud the transparency of decision-making. “This approach,” he said, “which replaces price signals with decisions by a handful of often unnamed individuals within the U.S. Department of Energy, plays to none of the inherent strengths of the U.S. market system to spur innovation and effectively allocate risks and rewards. Further, the basis, and sometimes scale, of these subsidy decisions is largely hidden from the public view.”
For Mr. Cooper, the core issue at stake is one of opportunity cost. “While the cost estimates of nuclear power continue to rise, the potential for energy efficiency measures to reduce the need for energy are far cheaper,” he said.
Lower-cost, low-carbon technologies are already available, and cost trends for several others indicate that a combination of efficiency and renewable technologies could meet projected power needs while also achieving aggressive carbon-reduction targets, Mr. Cooper said.
In a June 2009 report drawing on several earlier studies, Mr. Cooper said that energy efficiency, cogeneration and renewable sources could meet power needs at an average cost of 6 cents per kilowatt hour, compared with a cost of 12 cents to 20 cents per kilowatt hour for nuclear power.
Choosing the nuclear route, and constructing 100 new reactors, would translate into an extra cost to taxpayers and electricity users of $1.9 trillion to $4.4 trillion over the 40-year life of the reactors, compared with the costs of developing energy efficiency and renewable sources, the report said.
Mr. Cooper said it would make sense for policy makers, standing in the place of the market, to choose the least costly alternatives first.
“In an attempt to circumvent the sound judgment of the capital markets, nuclear advocates erroneously claim that subsidies lower the financing costs for nuclear reactors and so are good for consumers,” he said. “But shifting risk does not eliminate it. Furthermore, subsidies induce utilities and regulators to take greater risks that will cost the taxpayers and the ratepayers dearly.
“The risks that have dismayed Wall Street should be taken seriously by policy makers because they would cost not just hundreds of billions of dollars in losses on reactors that are canceled, but also trillions in excess costs for ratepayers when reactors are brought to completion by utilities that fail to pursue the lower-cost, less risky options that are available.
“The frantic effort of the nuclear industry to increase federal loan guarantees and secure ratepayer funding of construction work in progress from state legislatures is an admission that the technology is so totally uneconomic that the industry will forever be a ward of state, resulting in a uniquely American form of nuclear socialism.”





